Crimson Desert GOTY chances at The 2026 Game Awards plummet after release

At midnight on Wednesday, Crimson Desert, the ambitious new open-world game by Pearl Abyss, was running second only to Grand Theft Auto 6 on Kalshi’s prediction market for Game of the Year 2026 at The Game Awards. It had just hit a 25% likelihood to win the prize, ahead of Resident Evil Requiem at 12%. Trading on Crimson Desert had brought GTA 6 down under 40% for the first time. Here, Kalshi’s community of prognosticators were betting, was a real contender: a game that could take the fight to Rockstar’s behemoth, and maybe even win.